Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.429303 2.581846 2.748795 2.947089 3.179002 3.445428 3.780586
2025-04-20 2.265178 2.466550 2.699608 2.995530 3.371477 3.849708 4.536905
2025-04-27 2.185577 2.422570 2.708655 3.091846 3.614678 4.347337 5.563833
2025-05-04 2.088910 2.342502 2.657356 3.095113 3.724824 4.678734 6.487349
2025-05-11 2.011440 2.276816 2.613951 3.097685 3.826864 5.016280 7.619422
2025-05-18 1.916730 2.181153 2.521531 3.019044 3.790667 5.110785 8.316185
2025-05-25 1.856615 2.125688 2.477387 3.002842 3.846607 5.381150 9.709800
2025-06-01 1.801493 2.073021 2.432486 2.979650 3.885446 5.628711 11.402856
2025-06-08 1.750702 2.023110 2.387637 2.951445 3.910153 5.854453 13.520668
2025-06-15 1.723733 2.003430 2.383267 2.984006 4.045680 6.378292 19.310592
2025-06-22 1.656543 1.926153 2.292691 2.873367 3.902608 6.178393 19.214863
2025-06-29 1.624371 1.895547 2.267654 2.865663 3.953106 6.498461 27.256645
2025-07-06 1.582295 1.851153 2.222527 2.825550 3.942935 6.675596 39.895835
2025-07-13 1.565567 1.841133 2.226980 2.867147 4.102194 7.441908 NaN
2025-07-20 1.561651 1.848557 2.257263 2.954576 4.375499 8.854094 NaN
2025-07-27 1.537036 1.825455 2.239952 2.957537 4.463805 9.676104 NaN
2025-08-03 1.513914 1.803540 2.223212 2.959869 4.551478 10.635838 NaN
2025-08-10 1.475168 1.757889 2.167874 2.888473 4.449720 10.478623 NaN
2025-08-17 1.451415 1.733250 2.144282 2.873738 4.487270 11.227405 NaN
2025-08-24 1.427550 1.707714 2.118228 2.852633 4.505795 11.922122 NaN
2025-08-31 1.403921 1.681851 2.090671 2.826942 4.508973 12.556050 NaN
2025-09-07 1.393475 1.674874 2.092531 2.856599 4.665227 14.956917 NaN
2025-09-14 1.355908 1.627131 2.027951 2.755689 4.448799 13.270324 NaN